The cold summer of 2017: how bad weather will affect food prices
In general, food prices in June rose by 1% compared to May (by 0.1% in June 2016), while the prices for fruit and vegetable products increased by 8.3% compared to May (negative in June 2016 the value is minus 1%). "Acceleration of food inflation began as early as April 2017 as the last year’s harvest was exhausted," the document says.
Weather forecasters do not give clear forecasts as to whether the really summer weather will return to the central strip of Russia in the near future. Anatoly Tikhonov, head of the Center for International Agrobusiness and Food Security at the Higher School of Corporate Governance of the Russian Academy of Science and Technology, said that if there are not enough hot light days, prices will continue to grow.
"In the central part of Russia, where there is rain and no sun, the harvest does not ripen.The impact will be on grains, which will be difficult to collect, and the fruit and vegetable products of the open ground, in particular strawberries and almost all the components of the so-called" borscht recruitment ": potatoes, onions, carrots, cabbage, "- says the expert. Inflation, he said, will rise quite noticeably, as the fruit and vegetable group makes up 18% of the food basket.
In the Potato Union of Russia, the growth of wholesale and retail prices for potatoes is already recorded. As the head of the apparatus of the union Tatyana Gubina told DW, the decline in the harvest has already been recorded in the Central Federal District, the Volga Region, and the North-West District. "The planting areas were reduced almost everywhere, the vegetation passes unevenly," Gubina states. Good products, in her expression, will be small, because "it physiologically does not withstand such a pressure of water and such temperatures." This affected wholesale prices. If in June 2016 a kilogram of potatoes cost about 15 rubles, then in June this year - from 30 rubles.
Crop failure can also hit ricochets in such a category of food as dairy products. "In a number of regions, the problem of harvesting fodder is very acute, there are farms where only a quarter of what is needed is prepared for today." The situation is serious, some farms are already thinking about getting rid of cattle. a long time "- beats the alarm Tikhonov.
So, according to the expert, you need to look not only at cereals, vegetables and fruits, but also on other categories of goods. "If there is a decrease in the number of livestock, there will be less milk, which is still in deficit, that is, it will rise in price." By the way, we are still far from achieving milk targets of the food security doctrine, "the head of the Agribusiness Center of the Russian Academy of Science.